怀化市汛期降水量的灰色拓扑预测  

The Grey Topology Prediction of Precipitation during Flood Season in Huaihua City

作　　者：张坤[1] 王新发[1] 肖敏[1] 胡丽丽 杨宝明 

机构地区：[1]湖南省怀化市气象局,湖南怀化418000 [2]湖南省鹤城区气象局,湖南怀化418000 [3]湖南省沅陵县气象局,湖南怀化419600

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第7期181-182,211,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖南省气象局2014年短平快课题(XQKJ14B047)

摘　　要：采用灰色拓扑预测方法,以怀化市1981-2008年汛期降水量（4-9月）数据为基础建立了降水量预测模型,并利用2009-2013年降水数据对模型的预测结果进行了检验,最后对2014-2018年汛期降水量进行了预测。研究表明,灰色拓扑预测方法具有良好的预测效果,其结果可为怀化市汛期降水预报提供借鉴和参考。Using the grey topology prediction method,the precipitation prediction model was established on the basis of flood season precipitation in Huaihua during 1981-2008（4-9 months）,and the prediction results of the model was tested by using the precipitation data of 2009-2013 years. Finally,the precipitation in flood season during 2014-2018 was forecasted. Research shows that： the grey topological prediction method has good prediction effect,the results can provide the reference for the rainfall forecast in flood season in Huaihua City.

关 键 词：降水量 汛期 灰色拓扑预测 GM(1 1) 怀化市 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]