具有饱和接触率的SEIR网络舆情传播模型研究  

Research on Network Public Opinions Based on SEIR Model with Saturating Incidence Rate

作　　者：林晓静[1,2] 庄亚明[1] 孙莉玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经管学院,南京211189 [2]安徽工业大学商学院,马鞍山243032

出　　处：《情报杂志》2015年第3期150-155,共6页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于复杂动力网络的突发事件信息同步传播行为及其模型研究"(编号:71171051);江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点基金项目"全球化背景下江苏地方政府债务风险预警与防范决策机制研究"(编号:2012ZAIXM013)

摘　　要：应用具有饱和接触率的SEIR模型来研究网络舆情的传播扩散过程,并考虑了新网民的加入对传播的影响。通过对模型的平衡点及其稳定性的讨论,确定了决定网络舆情未来传播态势的传播阀值的表示形式;通过传播阀值的内在机理分析,对网络舆情的管控提出应对策略的建议。并经仿真实验验证模型的准确性和有效性。The SEIR model with saturating infect rate is applied in this paper to the research on the dissemination process of online public opinions, considering the influence of new participants on dissemination process as well. By analyzing model＇s equilibrium point and its stability, expression of dissemination threshold has been confirmed, which decides future dissemination state. Strategic suggestion on con-trol of online public opinions is proposed via analyzing dissemination threshold. Finally, accuracy and efficiency of the model are validated by simulation experiment.

关 键 词：网络舆情 饱和接触率 SEIR模型 种群Logistic增长 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]