基于控股股权的财务困境后续演变路径预警修正问题研究  

Relationship Between Controlling Shareholders and Distress' Evolution Path Warning

作　　者：郑海燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术学院经济与管理学院,上海201418

出　　处：《暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）》2015年第1期83-91,163,共9页Jinan Journal(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<融资风险动态迁移过程和系统分担结构研究>(批准号:71202103);教育部国家留学基金委项目<财务困境演变路径及作用机理研究>(批准号:2009663062)

摘　　要：控股股权状况对企业脱困具有重要意义。研究依据财务困境后续演变路径将困境公司归为两类——"价值型"困境好转公司和"垃圾型"困境恶化公司。通过构建和对比"财务预警模型"和"控股股权修正预警模型",探索困境公司脱困机理。研究结果表明:首先,要优化控股股权结构:适度提高控股股权集中度,有利于提高决策效率降低决策成本;法人控股有利提高市场竞争意识;通过提高控股股东直接资金流投入量,有利于降低控制权与现金流权的偏离度,促进控股股东与企业利益的协同。其次,要关注财务综合素质的提高:通过降低资产负债率、提高企业资产现金回收率、及时偿还到期债务、加速营运资金的周转、提高公司账面市值比率,稳定企业利益相关者投资信心,有利于企业顺利脱困。This paper uses Logistic data analysis method to analysis the relationship between controlling shareholders and distress' evolution path warning. We found that: the second model is more accurate than the first model in the evolution path of financial distress warning. Measures to optimize the controlling ownership structure is important.Measures such as enhance ownership concentration,which is useful to improve the decision efficiency and reduce the cost. To reduce the degree of deviation of control right and cashflow right is useful to promote the interests alliance of controlling shareholders and firm. Secondly,attention should be paid to the the improvement of financial comprehensive ability. Distressed firms should lower rates of assets and liabilities,increase cash rate,accelerate the capital turnover,improve the value of book to market ratio. Its key points that firms in financial distress should optimize the ownership structure and improve the comprehensive financial ability.

关 键 词：控股股权 财务困境路径 预算软约束 控制权与现金流权偏离 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]