进出口贸易对空间不平等的非线性影响——基于面板平滑转换回归模型  

The Nonlinear Effects of Import and Export to Spatial Inequality:Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

作　　者：赖永剑[1] 贺祥民[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院经贸学院,南昌330099

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2015年第3期107-112,共6页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目"能源偏向型技术进步与经济增长转型"(基金项目编号:71463022);教育部人文社科青年项目"特质性资本扭曲对企业创新绩效的影响研究"(基金项目编号:13YJC790063)

摘　　要：笔者使用能够根据研究对象的异质性信息内生分组的面板平滑转换回归模型,允许地区之间相关性、地区异质性和时间变化带来的变量不稳定的影响,从而研究了进出口贸易对空间不平等的影响。笔者选用产业结构差异度、政府支出和市场潜能差异度作为转换变量,以地区人均GDP的权系数衡量空间不平等,使用26个省份333个地级行政区的数据研究发现进出口贸易对我国各省份的空间不平等存在显著的动态非线性影响,该影响与各省份的产业结构差异度、政府支出和市场潜能差异度有关;且随着转换变量的取值变化,在区制之间平滑转换。进出口贸易在产业结构差异度较大、市场潜能差异度较大、政府支出较低的省份对空间不平等的弹性系数较高。据此,笔者提出促进相对落后地区的产业发展,降低产业结构差异度;加快落后地区的基础设施建设,降低市场潜能差异度;沿海省份加大转移支付力度,扶持相对落后地市的公共服务事业的发展等消减进出口贸易的空间不平等效应的相关对策。The author use the smooth transition regression model that can endogenous grouping according to the heterogeneous information of research object,allowing correlation between regions,the regional heterogeneity and the impact of variable unstable due to time change,thus to study the influences of import and export to the spatial inequality. The author selects the provincial industrial structure difference degree,government spending and market potential difference degree as conversion variable,with the weight of regional per capita GDP to measure spatial inequality,the study use 26 provinces and 333 regional administrative region data found that import and export have significant dynamic nonlinear influence on the provincial spatial inequality,the influence relate to provincial industrial structure difference degree,government spending and market potential difference degree; And as the transition vaiable value changes,the influence smooth transition between the regimes. In the provinces with larger industrial structure difference degree,wider market potential difference degree and lower government spending,the elastic coefficient of import and export to the spatial inequality are higher. On this basis,the author put forward to promote the industry development of relatively backward area to reduce the difference degree of industrial structure; and speed up infrastructure construction in underdeveloped regions to reduce market potential difference degree; and coastal provinces intensify transfer payments to support the development of relatively backward cities public services to cut the spatial inequality effect of import and export.

关 键 词：进出口贸易 空间不平等 非线性 PSTR模型 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]