三大经济长波理论的比较研究  

Comparison of Three Economic Long Wave Theories

作　　者：马艳[1] 王琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《当代经济研究》2015年第3期32-39,96,共8页Contemporary Economic Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AJL003)

摘　　要：从19世纪末开始,经济学家们纷纷发现了资本主义经济发展中的一个规律性现象,即大体50~60年出现一次长期波动,由此也开启了学术界对＂经济长波＂这一命题长达一个世纪的研究与探讨。对于长波的存在性问题,目前学术界已基本达成共识,即在资本主义的经济发展中确实存在着长达50~60年的长周期波动现象。而对于长波形成的动因,现有的研究仍是众说纷纭,学者们由于选择的视角不同,往往得到不同甚至相反的结论。在这样的背景下,本文对国内外现有的长波理论进行了细致地归纳和梳理,并且按照研究视角的不同将现有研究分为三大类,即技术创新长波论、制度演进长波论以及内生机制长波论。在对这三大长波理论进行介绍、比较与评析的基础上,本文试图为经济长波理论的进一步发展提供一个可能的方向。Starting from the end of the 19 th century,economists discovered one after another the regularity during capitalist economy development,i. e.,there would be a long wave every 50 ~ 60 years by and large,thus research and exploration of the topic of 'economic long wave'was carried out in the academia and lasted for a whole century. Concerning the existence issue of long wave,a common decision has been basically made in the academia,i. e.,the long wave phenomenon does exist during the capitalist economy development. Concerning the reasons of long wave,there are various opinions on the current stage,and the scholars will get different or even contrary conclusions from different perspectives. In such situation,the article carefully studies and explores the long wave theory on the current stage both at home and abroad,and classifies the current research into three categories according to different research perspectives,i. e.,technological creation long wave theory,system evolution long wave theory and exogenous long wave theory. Based on introduction,comparison and analysis of these three long wave theories,the article tries to provide a possible direction for further development of the economic long wave theory.

关 键 词：经济长波 技术创新 制度演进 内生机制 

分 类 号：F037[经济管理—政治经济学]