节能减排视角下的公路运输周转量空间计量研究  

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Road Turnover under the Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction

作　　者：姚宝珍[1] 沈飞[2] 姚锦宝[3] 王文思[4] 王爽[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学汽车工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [3]北京交通大学土建学院,北京100044 [4]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2015年第1期112-117,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51208079);中国博士后科学基金(2013M530924)

摘　　要：针对公路运输面临节能减排的严峻形势,提出一种公路运输周转量的空间计量模型来分析公路运输周转量的空间相关性.首先,用空间自相关Moran指数法检验中国省域公路运输周转量的全域空间依赖性,然后,利用公路运输周转量的局域空间相关性检验确定空间集群效应高的地区.在此基础上,构建公路运输周转量的空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,分析省域公路运输周转量的影响因素.通过情景假设考察空间集群效应高的地区,公路运输周转量减少对周边地区的影响,以及其对全国节能减排效果的贡献.The spatial econometric model of road turnover（freight and passenger） is studied under the background of energy saving and emission reduction in transportation industry. Firstly, Moran＇s I index is presented to examine the spatial correlation of provincial road turnover in China. And then, The Local Indicators of Spatial Association of road turnover is used to select the regions with high spatial cluster effect.On this basis, the spatial lag model and spatial error model of road turnover are conducted to analyze the influences of provincial road turnover. A certain scenario is established to analyze the influence of the reduction of road turnover in regions with high spatial cluster effect to their adjacent areas, and the contributions to energy saving and emission reduction of the whole country.

关 键 词：公路运输 节能减排 空间计量模型 运输周转量 空间相关 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]