“单独二孩”政策下我国受教育人口变化趋势研究  

On the Trends of Pre-school and School-aged Population under the "Selective Two-child Policy" in China

作　　者：姚引妹[1] 李芬[1] 尹文耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国西部发展研究院人口与发展研究所

出　　处：《教育研究》2015年第3期35-46,共12页Educational Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国分省人口发展模拟与生育政策比较选择"(项目编号:2008BRK00)的研究成果之一

摘　　要：基于中国2005年1%人口抽样和2010年人口普查资料,在对不同夫妇的婚配概率和堆积释放生育估计的基础上,从全国、城镇、农村三个维度,对学龄前、小学、初中、高中、大学五个阶段的受教育人口变动趋势进行预测和分析。在"单独二孩"政策下,我国受教育人口的规模有所增长,但长期总趋势是在波动中下降;学龄前儿童在2017年达到峰值,小学、初中、高中、大学学龄人口经过不同的波动轨迹在2020—2036年间逐类达到高峰后转为下降;城镇在波动中增长,农村则单边下降;全国受教育人口的变动态势,主要受城镇受教育人口变动的影响;要特别关注城乡学龄人口的不同发展态势,为应对未来各级学龄人口变动预先做好充分准备;"十三五"时期城镇学龄前儿童的快速增长,是制定"十三五"教育发展规划必须正视和解决的问题。Making use of one percentage of population sample Survey in 2005 and census data in 2010, based on the ＂multi-age＂ marriage probability and marriage numbers among the only-child and non-only child, and the accumulation couples and birth release of the ＂Selective Two-child Policy＂, the trends of pre-school, elementary school, middle school, high school and college population from the national, urban, rural dimensions are estimated. It is found that under the ＂Selective Two-child Policy＂, the scale of both pre-school and school-aged population will have a growth process, but the overall trends will decline in the long-term change; pre-school children will reach a peak in 2017, while the school-aged population will vary differently during 2020--2036, but the increase will not occur simultaneously for different school levels ; the trends of pre-school and school-aged population in China will be quite different between urban and rural areas, and population scale in urban area will increase while in rural area will decline unilaterally. The change of school-aged population in China is mainly affected by the school-aged population in urban area. During the ＂Thirteenth Five-Year Plan＂ period, the rapid increase of the pre-school population in urban areas will bring great challenges for educational development planning, which must be treated correctly and solved properly.

关 键 词：“单独二孩”政策 受教育人口预测 “十三五” 教育发展规划 

分 类 号：G521[文化科学—教育学]