鼠带毒指数预测肾综合征出血热发病率的探讨  

Study on prediction of HFRS incidence based on mice virus index

作　　者：李青[1] 史永林[1] 刘红[1] 王建军[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省疾病预防控制中心,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《安徽预防医学杂志》2015年第1期8-9,16,共3页Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨用鼠带毒指数预测肾综合征出血热发病率的科学性,为制定防治措施提供科学依据。方法根据《全国肾综合征出血热监测方案（试行）》进行监测,运用Spearman相关分析和χ2检验方法对2005~2012年安徽省人间和鼠间肾综合征出血热的发病率与带毒指数进行相关性分析。结果安徽省肾综合征出血热监测点的平均发病率为0.523/10万,非监测点发病率为0.215/10万,差异均有统计学意义（P〈0.05）;根据鼠带毒指数与人间肾综合征出血热发病率,建立线性回归方程模型：带毒指数=0.010＋0.087×发病率,预测2013年监测点发病率为0.676/10万,95%的可信区间[0.642/10万,0.709/10万],实际值为0.689/10万。结论根据鼠带毒指数预测人间肾综合征出血热发病水平具有可靠性,对肾综合征出血热疫情的预测预警提供参考。Objective To study on prediction of HFRS incidence based mice virus index so as to provide scientific basis for prevention and control measures. Methods According to the national kidney syndrome hemorrhagic fever monitoring program,correlation analysis between human incidence of HFRS and mice virus index from 2005 to 2012 in Anhui province was done using the Spearman correlation analysis and chi-square test method. Results The average incidence of hemorrhagic fever of renal syndrome in surveillance sites of Anhui province was 0. 523 /100000. The incidence in other parts of Anhui province was 0. 215 /100000. Differences were statistically significant（ P〈0. 05）; Linear regression equation model： mice virus index index = 0. 010 ＋ 0. 087 × incidence was set up based on mice virus index and human kidney syndrome hemorrhagic fever incidence. According to the model,incidence of HFRS in surveillance sites in 2013 was predicted as 0. 676 /100000,the 95% CI（ 0. 642 /100000,0. 709 /100000）. The actual incidence was 0. 689 /100000. Conclusion It is reliable to predict incidence of HFRS based on mice virus index.

关 键 词：肾综合征出血热 带毒指数 发病预测 

分 类 号：R521.8[医药卫生—内科学]