Dynamic Downscaling of Summer Precipitation Prediction over China in 1998 Using WRF and CCSM4  

作　　者：MA Jiehua WANG Huijun FAN Ke 

机构地区：[1]Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2015年第5期577-584,共8页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41130103);the special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306026);the National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scientists of China (Grant No. 41325018);the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951901)

摘　　要：To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer（June–July–August） of1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0（CCSM4.0） integrations were used to drive version 3.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF3.2） regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer（June–July–August） of1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0（CCSM4.0） integrations were used to drive version 3.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF3.2） regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.

关 键 词：seasonal climate prediction dynamic downscaling summer precipitation CCSM4 WRF 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]