基于经济、气象因素的安徽省年最大负荷预测方法研究  

The Anhui Annual Maximum Load Forecasting Method Research Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors

作　　者：葛斐 荣秀婷 石雪梅 杨欣 李周 

机构地区：[1]安徽省电力公司电力经济技术研究院,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《中国电力》2015年第3期84-87,共4页Electric Power

摘　　要：首先从用电结构上分析了年统调最大用电负荷的特性,将最大负荷分解为相互独立的3种负荷:基础负荷、居民空调负荷、非居民空调负荷。在此基础上,运用计量经济学原理,逐步分析影响3种负荷的经济因素和气象因素。最后建立了包含经济、气象因子在内的最大负荷预测模型。模型从根本上解释了最大负荷的影响因素,并将预测精度控制在3%范围内,预测精度满足负荷预测实际工作的需求,具有一定的应用价值。This paper analyzes the features of the centrally dispatched maximum power load （referred to as ＂maximum load＂） from the characteristics of electricity consumption structure and decomposes the maximum power load into three separate loads： base load, residents＇ air conditioning load and non-residents＇ air-conditioning load. Upon the decomposition, econometric methods are applied to analyze the economic and meteorological factors of each load. The paper finally establishes the maximum load forecasting model including economic and meteorological factors. The model explains the fundamental factors influencing the maximum load; the forecasting error is controlled within 3%, which meets the requirement of load forecasting practice and has certain applied values.

关 键 词：负荷分解 经济因素 气象因素 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]