基于有参和无参分析的风电功率短期点预测值置信区间估计  

Wind power short- term point forecast confidence interval estimation based on parametric and non- parametric calculation

作　　者：江岳文[1] 林小雨[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学电气工程与自动化学院,福建福州350116

出　　处：《福州大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第1期75-82,共8页Journal of Fuzhou University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：福建省青年人才创新基金资助项目(2011J05124);福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2013J01176)

摘　　要：根据风电场实际风速数据分布满足威布尔分布和正态分布,对风速满足正态分布的风电场功率概率分布进行详细推导、分析了基于两种风速分布的风电场短期点预测功率与未来实际风电功率偏差的概率求取,短期点预测风电功率波动的置信区间估计;同时,也采用非参数法进行风电功率短期点预测值的置信区间估计.通过对两组分布规律不一样的原始数据分析,求点预测风电功率的置信区间,并把有参和无参区间估计进行比较,验证了方法的实用性和有效性.This paper uses Weibull distribution and normal distribution to describe the characteristic of wind speed. Probability distribution is firstly deduced of wind power for normal distribution of wind speed. Wind power short- term forecast deviation probability to future factual value is deduced in detail. And wind power short- term forecast confidence interval estimation is calculated. The Non- parametric calculation is also adopted for confidence interval estimation. Finally,this paper uses two sets different characteristic data samples to analyze confidence interval based on parametric and non- parametric ways. This result informs these calculation methods are applied and effective.

关 键 词：风电功率 偏差概率 置信区间 有参计算 无参计算 

分 类 号：TK8[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]