混合模型在行蓄洪区运用风险评价中的应用  

The Application of Mixed Models to Flood Risk Estimation of Flood Detention Basin

作　　者：包君[1] 王再明[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学理学院,南京211100 [2]中水淮河规划设计研究有限公司,安徽蚌埠233001

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第3期94-98,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301065)

摘　　要：行蓄洪区运用风险综合评价是研究启用不同行蓄洪区的前置性工作。针对行蓄洪区运用风险特点,从行洪危险、社会风险、经济风险和承灾能力4个方面构建运用风险综合评价指标体系;选用基于模糊优选模型和决策优选方法的混合模型对淮河干流行蓄洪区的运用风险进行实证分析。研究发现,在对淮河干流行蓄洪区按风险高低五等级划分中,蓄洪区运用风险普遍偏高,行洪区中七处运用风险等级处于"一般"以上,实证分析表明行蓄洪区运用风险评价指标体系及基于混合模型的风险评价方法具有一定的合理性。Flood risk estimation is the precondition under which flood detention is put to service.Based on the feature of flood detention basin＇s using risk,a flood risk estimation system including the using risk,economy risk,social risk and the capacity of bearing disaster,is established.And then a mixed model is used to analyze the flood risk in the main stream of the Huaihe River.According to the result,flood detention basin in the main stream of the Huaihe River are divided into five levels.All of the flood risks of detention basin lie at the high level.seven seventeenths flood flowing districts＇ s risk outpaces the general level.An empirical analysis shows that the flood risk estimation system and the method based on the mixed model is some rational.

关 键 词：模糊优选 模糊一致矩阵 混合模型 行蓄洪区 风险评价 

分 类 号：TV873[水利工程—水利水电工程]