老龄化对民族地区居民消费的影响研究——基于城乡差异的视角  

The Influence of Population Aging on Household Consumption in Minority Concentrated Regions—Based on the Perspective of Difference between Urban and Rural Areas

作　　者：张波[1] 陈晓毅[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学旅游与服务贸易学院,昆明650221 [2]广西财经学院信息与统计学院,南宁530003 [3]中央财经大学统计学院,北京100081

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2015年第2期65-72,共8页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响及对策研究"(13CRK024)

摘　　要：在新古典消费理论模型的基础上,以民族地区城乡居民的消费作为研究对象,基于2000~2012年的面板数据,利用动态面板数据的系统GMM估计方法,考察了老龄化和居民消费之间的关系,并进行了城乡层面的比较。实证结果发现老龄化对居民消费的影响在民族地区存在着显著的城乡差异：老龄化对民族地区城镇居民的消费具有显著的正效应,而对农村居民消费产生的是显著的负效应。这种差异形成的原因在于城乡老年人口收入来源的差异以及社会保障水平的差距,导致老龄化的＂消费效应＂在城镇地区占据主导地位,而农村地区则是＂储蓄效应＂占据主导地位。Based on the theoretical model of neoclassical consumption,with household consumption of urban and rural areas in minority concentrated regions as research objects,the paper analyzes the relationship between population aging and consumption,and compares the data between urban and rural areas by using the panel data from 2000 to 2012 and the estimation method of system GMM. It concludes that the influence of population aging on household consumption is different in different minority concentrated regions. Population aging has a positive and significant impact on the consumption of urban residents,and the result is opposite in rural areas. The reason for the difference lies in the income differences between urban and rural elderly population as well as the gap of social security level,which make ＂consumption effect＂be more dominant in urban areas,while ＂save effect＂is more dominant in rural areas.

关 键 词：老龄化 民族地区 城乡居民 消费 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学]