农药残留量预测数学模型  

Mathematical model for prediction of pesticide residues

作　　者：吴长刚[1] 管琳[1] 周静[1] 徐继忠[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学理学院,河北保定071001 [2]河北农业大学园艺学院,河北保定071001

出　　处：《河北农业大学学报》2015年第2期135-139,共5页Journal of Hebei Agricultural University

基　　金：河北省科技支撑计划项目(13226829);河北农业大学理工基金(LG20130603)

摘　　要：本研究通过观测乐斯本在桃果实中的残留量,建立了3种不同类型的数学模型,包括经典的指数负增长函数模型、Rayleigh动态模型和灰色预测GM(1,1)模型等,然后用它们依次来模拟乐斯本在生态环境中的残留消解动态并分别预测农药残留情况,最后进行拟合度检验,比较哪种模型的预测结果更加准确,采取最优方案对农药残留量进行预测.The three mathematical models, namely the classic model of the negative growth in- dex weighting function model, Rayleigh dynamic model and gray prediction GM （1,1） model were set up on the basis of the observation of the amount of chlorpyrifos residues in peaches in the paper. And then the three models were used in turns to simulate the dynamic degradation of chlorpyrifos in the ecosystem, and try to predict the amount of pesticide residues. Finally, the author experimentized the test of goodness of fit, tried to find the most accurate model to be applied to predict the amount of pesticide residues.

关 键 词：乐斯本 预测 水果套袋 单因素方差分析 

分 类 号：S482[农业科学—农药学]