机场安全趋势分析方法与应用研究  

Research on Airport Safety Trends Analysis Method and Application

作　　者：梁文娟[1] 程明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2015年第4期7-9,共3页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助(ZXH2012 D006);民航软科学项目(MHRD201212)

摘　　要：通过构建机场安全趋势分析模型,对各区域的不安全事件进行分类、分级,并采用责任因子分配机场管理机构和驻场单位之间的安全责任。利用2008—2014年某机场的825起不安全事件验证了模型有效性和可靠性,并预测了2015—2018年的不安全事件数量、起降架次、安全风险分数以及安全趋势指数。分析结果表明,此方法能够准确反映机场当前安全运行状况和未来的发展趋势。In this paper ,the safety trends analysis model of airport is established ,the events that happened in the airports are classified and graded and also Responsibility factors are used to allocate the safety responsibility between the airport and other organizations .Based on 825 events happened in the airport in 2008 -2014 , the effectiveness and reliability of the safety trends analysis model is measured and the number of the events ,the number of arrivals and departures ,safety risk score and safety trend index in 2015-2018 is also predicted respectively .The results show that this method can accurately reflect the current airport safety operation status and future safety trends .

关 键 词：机场安全 安全趋势分析模型 不安全事件 安全趋势指数 

分 类 号：V351[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]