自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理的探讨  

Exploration on the Basic Principles of Dynamic Risk Analysis in Natural Disasters

作　　者：黄崇福[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第2期1-7,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划"全球变化与环境风险演变过程与综合评估模型"(2012CB955402)

摘　　要：随着自然环境的变化和人类社会的发展,自然灾害的风险必然发生变化。变化着的风险,称为动态风险。该文概述了动态风险研究的现状,指出更新算法和趋势预测法只适于研究惯性型动态风险,没有触及动态风险的本质,进而界定随着综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化的风险才是动态风险。人们所能研究的仅仅是认知动态风险。提出了以"研究综合环境和内在属性变化对风险源和风险承受体的影响"为核心,并对风险源和风险承受体进行耦合的自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理。With the changes in the natural environment and the development of human society,the risk of natural disasters will inevitably change.A changing risk is called as a dynamic risk.This article outlines the research status of dynamic risks and points out that the update algorithms and trend forecasting methods are only suitable to study the dynamic risks due to inertia,which do not touch the nature of dynamic risks,and we define the dynamic risks with the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties.People can study only the perceived dynamic risk.The basic principles of dynamic risk analysis are proposed.The key tasks are to study the effects of the changes in integrated environmental and intrinsic properties on risk sources and risk-bearing bodies,and how coupling of risk sources and risk-bearing bodies.

关 键 词：动态风险 认知风险 真实风险 综合环境 内在属性 耦合 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]