水利工程群应对干旱能力定量评价研究:方法及案例  

Study on Drought Coping Ability Assessment of Hydraulic Engineering Projects: Quantitative Evaluation Method and a Case Study on Zhangwei River Basin

作　　者：王刚[1,2] 潘涛[1] 严登华[3] 齐珺[1] 刘少华[3] 赵继伟[4] 

机构地区：[1]北京市环境保护科学研究院,北京100037 [2]东华大学环境科学与工程学院,上海201620 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [4]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450045

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第2期56-63,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目"气候变化对黄淮海地区水循环的影响机理和水资源安全评估"(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与风险区划研究"(51279207)

摘　　要：水利工程群是由区域上蓄、引、提、调工程及闸坝工程组成的复杂供水系统,是应对区域干旱的关键支撑。针对当前抗旱能力评价概念表达不统一、定量评价方法不完善等问题,对水利工程群应对干旱能力进行界定;从干旱本质和干旱灾害形成的机理出发,定义了干旱应对能力水平指数(HEGdca),并提出基于HEGdca的水利工程群应对干旱能力定量评价方法。以2010年为评价水平年,评价了漳卫河流域给定水利工程条件应对不同程度气象干旱事件的能力。结果表明:以流域多年平均缺水率为衡量标准,漳卫河流域当前(2010年)的水利工程条件整体可以有效应对不超过30年一遇的干旱。评价结果与流域的实际情况相符,可为流域抗旱规划和干旱风险管理提供技术支撑。Hydraulic engineering group refers to a complex water supply system,consisting of water conservancy projects,water diversion projects,water lifting projects,inter-basin water transfer projects as well as sluice and dam projects.It has been accepted to be a key support to deal with regional droughts.Given that the expression of drought coping ability is not uniform and the current quantitative evaluation methods need to be improved,the connotation of drought coping ability of hydraulic engineering projects has been defined firstly.Then the drought coping ability index of hydraulic engineering group（HEGdca） was defined from the perspective of both essence of drought and the forming mechanism of drought disaster.Finally,a quantitative evaluation method of drought coping ability of hydraulic engineering projects has been put forward based on the HEGdca.Taking 2010 as the level year for evaluation,the HEGdcaunder given project condition has been calculated for different drought scenarios in the study area.The result shows that when taking the average water deficient ratio as the criteria for evaluation,the current（2010） hydraulic engineering projects in the Zhangwei River basin can effectively resist a meteorological drought event with less than 30-year return period on the whole.The result of quantitative evaluation is generally consistent with the actual situation of the study area,which can offer a technological support for drought planning and the risk management of drought disaster.

关 键 词：水利工程群 干旱应对能力指数 定量评价 游程理论 水资源优化配置模型 漳卫河流域 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]