大风浪条件下船舶风险状况动态评估预警系统  

Dynamic Risk Evaluation and Early Warning System for Vessels Under Rough Sea Condition

作　　者：刘大刚[1] 解以扬[2] 刘斌贤[3] 林毅[2] 杨晓君[3] 吴丹朱[2] 吴彬贵[2] 郭虎[4] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300457 [3]天津市气象台,天津300457 [4]天津市气象局,天津300457

出　　处：《中国航海》2015年第1期63-67,共5页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家公益性行业科研专项项目(GYHY201006034);天津市海洋局科技兴海项目(KJXH2012-25)

摘　　要：为有效减少大风浪条件下中国北方海域的恶性船舶翻沉事故的发生次数,针对目前国内缺乏个性化、可视化且具有动态显示和风险评估功能的海事气象保障服务产品的现状,根据前期建立的大风浪条件下的渤海海域重点船舶风险评估模型和船舶-大风浪区动态显示系统,在天津市气象局的"天津海洋气象精细化预报综合业务平台"上研发可在大风浪来临前对中国北方海域易发生海上事故的船舶进行海区和航线风险评估及预警的海事气象保障服务系统。实例分析表明,该系统可动态、直观、有效地给出特定船舶在某海区航行可能遇到的风险状况,可作为行之有效的船舶气象安全保障辅助决策产品供航运安全管理部门和海事安全管理部门使用。With the aim of reducing disastrous ship accidents under rough sea in North China sea areas a new maritime meteorological guarantee service system is developed on the basis of the up-front development in the risk evaluation models for major ships in Bohai Sea area under rough sea and the dynamic display of ship-sea state and integrated into the Tianjin Marine Meteorological Fine Forecast Integrated Services Platform in Tianjin Meteorological Bureau. The system is able to evaluate the risks the navigating ships bear and give early warning of rough sea to those ships which will be at high risk of accident if they enter the area. The system features dynamic visual display and user configurable human-machine interface. This system can be an effective tool for decision making in ship meteorological support for the marine and maritime safety management departments.

关 键 词：水路运输 海事气象安全保障 船舶安全 大风浪天气 动态安全评估 预警系统 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]