中国制造业并购目标的财务特征及预测  

Financial characteristics and the predicting of China's manufacturing industry takeover targets

作　　者：赵息[1] 徐晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《河北工业科技》2015年第2期107-111,共5页Hebei Journal of Industrial Science and Technology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(11YJA630208)

摘　　要：并购目标的选择关系到并购事件的成败,制造业是中国经济的重要组成部分,也是并购发生最频繁的行业,识别制造业目标公司的财务特征并对其进行预测具有很大的理论及现实意义。以2013年中国A股市场制造业并购目标为研究对象,选取代表企业各方面能力的20个财务变量,通过单因素方差分析将其与股本规模类似的制造业非目标公司和非制造业并购目标进行比较,实证分析结果表明制造业目标公司具有负债水平高、收益水平低、每股获利能力强、现金短缺、股权集中度低等特点。另外,制造业目标公司和非制造业目标公司在财务特征上不存在显著差异。采用多重共线性诊断并构建Logit回归模型以预测制造业并购目标,模型总体准确率为70.4%,表明对制造业并购目标进行预测在很大程度上是可行的。Abstract. The selection of target companies in mergers and acquisitions is important to the success of M＆-A event. Manufac- turing industry is a critical component of China＇s economy and the field where M＆A events take place most frequently. Thus, it＇s of great theoretical and practical significance to recognize the financial features and to make prediction of manufacturing M＆A targets. The article focuses on the targets of China＇s A-shares manufacturing industry in 2013, choosing 20 variables and comparing them with non-target companies having the similar stock scale in the same industry and target companies of dif- ferent industries by ANOVA. The empirical study shows that manufacturing targets have the characteristics of high leverage, low income, high earnings per share, shortage of cash and low ownership concentration degree. Besides, there are no statisti- cally significant differences in financial characteristics between the target companies of manufacturing and the non-manufactur- ing. Furthermore, the article builds a forecast model by using multieollinearity diagnosis and Logit regression. The overall 70.4 percent accuracy shows that it is available to make prediction on manufacturing target companies.

关 键 词：预测评价学 并购目标 财务特征 制造业 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：F276.6[经济管理—企业管理]