中国工业污染环境治理投资与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于10省市面板数据的分析  

Empirical Research on the Relation between Investments in Environmental Governance towards China's Industrial Pollution and Economic Growth:Based on the Panel Data of 10 Provinces

作　　者：陈仕鸿[1] 徐姝妤 欧阳泽拯 梁志鹏[1] 范宝丽[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学思科信息学院 [2]广东外语外贸大学政治与经济管理学院 [3]广东外语外贸大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2015年第2期43-54,共12页Scientific Decision Making

摘　　要：根据《中国统计年鉴》(2003-2012),选取了国内10个省市工业污染环境治理投资与省内生产总值的面板数据进行实证研究。论文通过建立工业污染环境治理投资与经济增长的长期均衡模型来说明工业污染治理在长期能作用于各种因素从而带动经济增长,并通过建立短期波动模型来体现不同省市在短期受内部和外部制约因素作用的差异,得出了各省市两者之间的长期趋势方程与短期波动方程。结果显示,长期来看,当治理投入增长较少时(增长低于一倍),对经济的增长有反作用;当治理投入增长较多时(增长高于一倍),对经济具有增长作用,但随着治理投入越大,所带来的经济增长效率呈现下降趋势。但是,由于每个省市所受的内外因素的影响不同,在短期内会对长期均衡方程有所偏离。这对于污染治理决策具有重要借鉴意义。Based on the China Statistical Yearbook（2003-2012）,the paper chooses the panel data of investments in environmental governance towards industrial pol ution and GDP of ten provinces in China. The paper conducts a co-integration analysis with the utilization of Eviews and SPSS, and it works out co-integration regression equations of al ten provinces that have been chosen, finding out that in the long run,the increase of investments in environmental governance towards industrial pol ution wil relatively bring economic suffering when the increase of investments are low（ less than one time） ,and bring economic growth when the increase of investments are high （more than one time）. However,the influences caused by both the external and internal con-straints of the ten sample provinces are different,which wil bring deviations to the long-term equi-librium equations. Both of the models have important significances for decision-making of pol ution control.

关 键 词：工业污染 环境治理投资 面板数据 协整分析 短期波动模型 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]