异质信念下存款保险的存款稳定效应测算  

The deposit stabilization effect of deposit insurance under heterogeneous beliefs

作　　者：吕筱宁[1] 秦学志[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第4期817-827,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171032)

摘　　要：构建了存款人异质信念下存款保险制度的存款稳定效应测算模型.首先刻画了具有异质信念的资金持有者的决策模式及正常经济形势下投保前后银行系统存款规模的变化,以此度量正常经济形势下存款保险的存款稳定效应;其次,计算隐性存款保险制度和显性存款保险制度下极端事件发生后银行系统的存款流失率,以二者之差度量极端事件发生后显性存款保险制度的存款稳定效应.最后,为验证模型效果,对投保比例及其他各参数变化的若干情景进行了模拟分析.结果表明:存款保险的稳定效应与投保比例正相关;经济形势越不稳定、银行系统信息透明度越高,存款保险的存款稳定效应越显著.A model is proposed to measure the deposit stabilization effect of deposit insurance under heterogeneous beliefs of depositors. Firstly, the decision making process of depositors with heterogeneous beliefs is given. The stabilization effect of deposit insurance under normal economic situation is measured by comparing the deposit scale of insured banking system with that of the system without deposit insurance. Secondly, the deposit running off degrees under extreme events, with explicit and implicit deposit insurance, are computed respectively. And the difference between them is calculated to measure the stabilization effect of explicit deposit insurance. Finally, several scenarios with varying parameters are constructed to test the model. The results show that it is positively correlated between the stabilization effect of deposit insurance and the insured proportion. The stabilization effect is more significant when the economic situation becomes worse or the banking system is of more information transparency.

关 键 词：存款保险 异质信念 存款规模 存款流失率 稳定效应 

分 类 号：F830.48[经济管理—金融学]