我国房地产企业最优资本结构模型的仿真分析  

Simulation analysis on optimal capital structure model of Chinese real estate enterprises

作　　者：张红[1,2] 杨飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第4期865-871,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71373143)

摘　　要：结合我国房地产企业融资负债的特点,基于资本结构理论和期权定价理论量化负债的收益与成本,构建考虑无息负债影响的数理模型,确定房地产企业的最优资本结构,并对其进行仿真模拟.研究结果表明:有息负债利率、公司所得税税率、无风险利率、有息负债占比与房地产企业最优负债率正相关;房价年均增长率、企业资产年波动率与房地产企业最优负债率负相关;随着负债期限的增加,房地产企业最优负债率逐渐降低.By combining with the financing liability characteristics of Chinese real estate enterprises, and quantifying the revenues and costs of liabilities based on the capital structure theory and the option pricing theory, this paper established a mathematical model in consideration of the effects of interest-free liability, determined the optimal capital structure of real estate enterprises, and also conducted simulation analysis. The results showed that the interest-bearing liability interest rate, the enterprise income tax rate, the risk-free interest rate and the interest-bearing liability ratio are all positively correlated with the optimal liability ratio of real estate enterprises; and the annual average growth rate of housing price and the annual volatility of enterprise assets are negatively correlated with the optimal liability ratio of real estate enterprises; and as the liability period increases, the optimal liability ratio of real estate enterprises will decrease gradually.

关 键 词：最优资本结构 房地产企业 仿真分析 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理]