供应链中需求风险和汇率风险的传导及节点企业价值评价  

Transmission of Demand Risk and Exchange Rate Risk in Supply Chain and Evaluation on Values of Node Firms

作　　者：范建昌[1] 倪得兵[1] 唐小我[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学,经济与管理学院,成都611731

出　　处：《技术经济》2015年第4期120-128,共9页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球环境下供应链风险管理理论与方法研究”(70932005);国家自然科学基金项目“供应链中企业社会责任协调机制研究”(71272129);教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”项目“供应链中的社会责任协调机制及其风险含义”(NCET-11-0064);四川青年科技基金项目“供应链中的社会责任行为协调机制与产品交易决策之间的匹配关系研究”(2013JQ0031);四川省科技支撑计划项目“多源风险下全球供应链结构设计与优化技术”(2010GZ0155)

摘　　要：基于批发价合同构建了一个三级供应链模型,用单位业绩风险表征供应链节点企业每单位期望业绩所承担的风险,讨论了需求风险和汇率风险对供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险的影响。从风险厌恶型投资者的角度,以均值-方差模型为基础,讨论了风险厌恶型投资者对供应链各节点企业的价值评价。均衡结果表明:在供应链节点企业中,制造商的单位业绩风险最大,零售商(供应商)的单位业绩风险与反应(决策)灵活性反向变动;供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险随着需求波动程度和汇率波动程度的增大而增大;在供应链节点企业中,风险厌恶型投资者对制造商的单位业绩效用评价最小,对零售商(供应商)的单位业绩效用评价与反应(决策)灵活性程度同向变动。研究结果从理论上表明:一方面,供应链中的需求风险和汇率风险可通过引致供应链中各节点企业运作决策(变量)波动而在节点企业间传导;另一方面,供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险与风险厌恶型投资者对节点企业的价值评价相关,即供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险越大,则风险厌恶型投资者对节点企业的单位业绩效用评价越小。Firstly,this paper builds a three-level supply chain model based on the wholesale price contract,and discusses how demand risk and exchange rate risk influence the profit variance per expected profits（PVEPs）of the supplier,the manufacturer and the retailer which represent the risk-sharing degrees of members in supply chain bear risk.And then,from the perspective of a risk-averse investor,based on the mean-variance model,it discusses how a risk-averse investor evaluates the values of node members in supply chain.The equilibrium results show as follows：the manufacturer＇s PVEP is the highest one among supply chain members,while the PVEPs of the retailer and the supplier are negatively related to the degree of response flexibility;the PVEPs of the retailer,the manufacturer and the supplier increase with the increasing of the variance of market demand and the variance of exchange rate;the utility per expected profit（UEP）of the manufacturer is the lowest one among supply chain members,while the UEPs of the retailer and the supplier are positively related to the degree of response flexibility.To summarize,there results theoretically reveal that,on the one hand,demand risk and exchange rate risk could be transmitted in a supply chain via the members＇ strategic interactions,and on the other hand,the PVEPs of the retailer,the manufacturer and the supplier are related to the values of them evaluated by the risk-averse investor,that is,the higher the PVEPs of the retailer,the manufacturer and the supplier,the lower the UEPs of the retailer,the manufacturer and the supplier.

关 键 词：供应链管理 风险传导 需求风险 汇率风险 风险厌恶 投资者 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济] F830.73