房价不确定性对开发商销售行为的影响  

Effect of Housing Price Uncertainty on Trading Behavior of Developers

作　　者：杨赞[1,2] 张晓营[1,2] 张蔚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]清华恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2015年第2期126-131,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(NSF71073090)

摘　　要：随着中国房地产市场宏观调控政策的频繁出台，房价不确定性进一步加大，而开发商与消费者在交易过程中的行为与决策是影响调控政策效果的关键。基于期权理论，研究了房价不确定性对开发商销售行为的影响，以及开发商销售行为对最终成交价格的影响，并应用2006～2008年北京市预售商品住房成交微观样本进行实证检验。研究结果发现房价不确定性将导致开发商销售行为的推迟，但并不一定最终引起成交价格的上涨；随着成交房屋销售持时的增加，成交价格呈现先降后增的趋势。Macroeconomic regulations and controls of real estate market in China increases uncertainty of housing price. Developer and consumer＇s behavior and decision are the vigorous influencing factors of regulation and control. Based on real option theory, impacts of uncertainty on trading behavior of developers and influences of trading behavior on final sale price of housing are analyzed. Based on pre-sale housing price in Beijing from 2006 to 2008, empirical analysis find that housing price uncertainty leads to sales delay of developers, but not necessarily leads to increment of transaction price. In addition, with delay of selling housing, transaction price shows a trend of increase after drop.

关 键 词：实物期权 房价不确定性 开发商 销售行为 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]