基于模糊综合评价-集值统计法的煤矿外因火灾危险性分析  

Fuzzy evaluation and statistically oriented method in analyzing the external causes of the coal mine fire

作　　者：贾进章[1] 董晓雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院矿山热动力灾害与防治教育部重点实验室,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第2期11-14,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51374121);辽宁省高等学校杰出青年学者成长计划项目(LJQ2011028)

摘　　要：在煤矿火灾事故中,内因火灾的发生率远高于外因火灾,因此大多安全评价是针对煤矿内因火灾的评价,对于外因火灾的评价相对较少;但外因火灾造成的后果远高于内因火灾,做好外因火灾的安全评价同样重要。采用2级模糊综合评价与集值统计法相结合的模型对煤矿外因火灾进行评价,建立煤矿外因火灾的安全评价指标体系,采用集值统计法确定评价指标的权重,并对得出的权重进行可靠性分析,用加权平均模型确定外因火灾危险性总的相对隶属度,求出模糊特征向量,根据总得分确定外因火灾的危险性等级,并将其应用于实际,与传统的计算方法相对比。Abstract： The present paper is engaged in a comprehensive analysis of the external causes that are likely to lead to coal mine fires. So far as we know, most of the researches on the coal mine fire are oriented in the study of the internal causes that may lead to such fires. How- ever, it should never neglect the study of the external causes of such fire risks in any sense. And, in many cases, the external causes can and should account＇for the chief reasons for a lot of coal mine fires. It is for this reason that this paper intends to adopt a method known as the two-grade comprehensive fuzzy evaluation along with the statistics method of collecting and accumulating enough indexical factors and parameters concerned in our research practice. According to the said method, it is necessary to assess and determine the weights of the e- valuating indices by using the statistics method of information and in- fluential factors, which can be represented via two or three formulas that may typically reflect the ratio or proportion of the potential or likely causes that may account for the actual fire or fires. At the same time, the reliability of the weighted indexes or the elements obtained through the analysis should be categorized into corresponding types and described by using the above said four formulas. And, then, it would be possible to evaluate and determine the relative effects or de- grees of effects of the external causes of the given fire in the mine so as to be able to work out the fuzzy characteristic vectors in the end. In so doing, we have adopted a model of equalizing the weighing fac- tors by summing them up to the solution to the problems from the point of view of weighing their individual degrees of importance. Based on the above said method, we have worked out the score of the relative reliability at about 84. 3180, while giving the grade of evalua- tion on the external causes of coal mine fire. However, if we adopt the traditional methods, for example, the method of the analytic hier- archy process

关 键 词：安全工程 模糊综合评价 集值统计 外因火灾 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]