区域生态安全的组合权重评价模型  

Research on the establishment of the regional ecological security assessment model by means of the combined weights

作　　者：吴海泽 余红[2] 胡友彪[1] 孟繁华[2] 杨津津[2] 朱建超[2] 王月[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学地球与环境学院,安徽淮南232000 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第2期370-375,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为了更准确合理地确定区域生态安全评价的指标权重,利用层次分析法求得主观权重,利用变异系数法求得客观权重,再用最小相对信息熵原理将它们合并为组合权重。结合"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)"模型框架,建立了指标体系和评价模型,分别计算3种权重下的生态安全指数。结果表明,使用组合权重的计算结果最符合实际状况。2010年兰州新区的生态安全综合指数为0.615 9,2015年为0.519 4,2020年为0.484 1,分别处于较安全、临界安全和临界安全状态。这表明当地生态安全状况有恶化趋势,新区应大力发展循环经济,推进清洁生产,加大环境污染防治力度,从而保障生态安全,促进经济社会可持续发展。This paper is to present a regional ecological security as- sessment model by using the comprehensive weights developed by the author on the basis of the selected index system and assessment crite- ria. As is known, it is the important prerequisite to the selection of a reasonable and effective index system as wen as the accurate index weights so as to make an ecological security assessment by determin- ing the index weights accurately. In this paper, we would like to pro- pose an innovative approach in this way by combining the subjective weights worked out through the analytic hierarchy process and the ob- jective weights estimated with the variation analysis methods with the principle of minimum relative information entropy on the basis of the currently existing research findings both at home and abroad. In ac- cordance with the ＂ driving force-pressure-state-impact-response （DPSIR）＂ model, we have first of all constructed the index system with the twenty-eight indexes reflecting the regional driving force, pressure, status, impact and response. We have then collected the raw data of the ecological security assessment, in Lanzhou New Dis- trict in the year of 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively from the local yearbooks, as well as the planning for the special subjects, with fur- ther standardized assessment terms in the range analysis. And, con- sequently, we have made analysis and comparison in referring to the above sa^d three different weights for the ecological security indexes in hoping to optimize our assessment model. And, finally, we have cho- sen the ecological security index of combined weights and the ＂values at the three different time points, so that we can comprehensively il- lustrate and demonstrate the ecological security trends. The results of our investigation and analysis show that the ecological security index system of Lanzhou New District in 2010, 2015 and 2020 are 0.615 9, 0.519 4, and 0.484 1, can be expected to comparatively safe, basically safe and comparatively critically safe

关 键 词：环境学 区域生态安全评价 DPSIR 组合权重 兰州新区 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X821