基于概率分析法的M2对CPI影响时滞研究  

A Study of the Effects of M2 on CPI Based on the Probabilistic Analysis

作　　者：吴方伟 王潮[2] 胡风[2] 吴亮圻[3] 

机构地区：[1]银行业信贷资产登记流转中心 [2]上海大学 [3]南开大学

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2015年第2期60-74,共15页Financial Regulation Research

摘　　要：本文采用态势概率分析方法,对中国广义货币供应量(M2月同比,M2T)与消费者物价指数(CPI月同比,CPIT)之间的滞后关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,M2T从低谷上升时,CPIT滞后3-4个季度上升的概率最大;M2T从峰顶下降时,CPIT滞后6-8个季度下降的概率最大;同时,M2T持续高位或低位运行也会相应地增加滞后通胀或通缩的概率。另外,过去的十多年中,M2T的合理区间有向低位"漂移"的迹象。本文据此对新常态下的货币政策提出了建议。Based on the Probabilistic Analysis of Trend, we assess the time-lag relation between the money supply （M2T, year-on-year growth rate of monthly M2） and consumer price index （CPIT, year-on-year monthly CPI） in China. Firstly, the results indicate that the level of CPIT is more likely to rise after 3-4 quarters when M2T rising from its trough, and fall after 6-8 quarters when M2T drops from its peak. Secondly, the sustained high or low level of M2T leads to the high probability of inflation or deflation respectively. Finally, the results imply that a ＂drifting down＂ of ＂optimal interval＂ of M2T over the past decade exists. Based on our research, we propose some policy suggestions for the monetary authority under ＂China＇s New Normal＂.

关 键 词：货币供应量 通货膨胀 时滞 态势概率分析 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]