1960—2010年山西朔州市气候变化及其突变分析  

Climate change and its mutation analysis in Shuozhou of Shanxi province during 1960—2010

作　　者：张小平[1] 周建琨 张晓[2] 李智才[2] 张红雨[2] 田粉平 

机构地区：[1]山西省朔州市气象局,朔州036002 [2]山西省气象局,太原030002

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期168-173,共6页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

摘　　要：根据朔州市6个地面气象站1960—2010年降水、气温资料,利用折线图、距平图、趋势图、滑动平均、气候变率及统计图表等,对朔州市51 a来气候特征进行具体分析.结果表明:1)51 a来朔州市年降水量总体呈减少趋势,气候倾向率为-6.21 mm/(10 a),减少速度低于全国和山西水平,多雨年集中在20世纪60—70年代,少雨年则比较分散;四季降水量的变化趋势有所不同,夏季降水呈减少趋势,其他季节的降水呈现增加趋势,表明朔州市年降水减少主要是夏季降水减少所致;年、季降水均没有显著突变.2)51 a来朔州市年平均气温以0.285℃/(10 a)的速率波动上升,上升速度显著高于全国和山西水平,20世纪90年代以来这种趋势尤为明显,四季平均气温均为增暖趋势,但增温幅度差异较大,冬季最为明显,增速为0.5℃/(10 a),表明朔州市气候变暖是四季气温增加所致;年和季节的平均气温均存在由低向高的显著突变.3)以20世纪90年代中期为界,将朔州市气候分为冷、暖2个阶段,前为冷期,后为暖期.The climate change characteristics in Shuozhou of Shanxi province in recent 51years is analyzed in detail by using the data of precipitation and temperature observed by 6 meteorological stations during 1960—2010.The cli-mate variation and anomaly are showed and analyzed by statistic tables and methods of moving average,linear tend-ency,mutation analysis,etc.The results show that the precipitation in Shuozhou was generally in a decreasing trend in recent 51 years,with a linear decreasing rate of -6.21 mm/（10 a）,which is lower than that in Shanxi or in the whole nation.The wet years were mostly in 1960s or 1970s,while the dry years were roughly scattered in the whole period.As for the seasonal variation,precipitation decreased in summer and increased in the other 3 seasons,indica-ting that the annual precipitation decreasing trend is mainly due to the decreased summer precipitation.Yet,no obvi-ous mutation is found in annual or seasonal precipitation variation.The temperature in Shuozhou was generally in a fluctuant increasing trend in recent 51 years, with a linear increasing rate of 0.285 ℃/（ 10 a ） , which is significantly higher than that in Shanxi or in the whole nation. The warming trend is more obvious since 1990s. The temperature is in increasing trend in all the 4 seasons with different increasing range,and temperature rises most sig-nificantly in winter with increasing rate of 0.5 ℃/（10 a）.Significant mutations are found in annual and seasonal average temperature variations.The climate in Shuozhou during 1960—2010 can be divided into two periods,namely cool period before mid-1990s,and warm period after mid-1960s.

关 键 词：气候变化 降水 气温 趋势 突变分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]