北京地区电子出版业产品结构转移变化趋势研究  

Study on the Trend of Changes for the Product Structure Transition of Electronic Publishing Industry in Beijing

作　　者：张二艳[1] 张齐[1] 文美[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京印刷学院,北京102600

出　　处：《北京印刷学院学报》2015年第2期75-78,共4页Journal of Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication

基　　金：2014年北京市本科生科学研究计划项目资助(08150114/053)

摘　　要：为了研究北京地区电子出版业产品结构的变化趋势,应用Markov预测方法和多元回归分析方法对北京地区电子出版业的产品结构进行了研究,并给出了其Markov链的状态转移概率矩阵的估算模型。通过对模拟结果的误差考查,表明此方法具有较高的预测精度,并以此为基础预测了2013-2017年北京地区电子出版业产品结构的变化趋势。Markov预测模型在北京电子出版业产品结构变化趋势预测中的应用丰富了Markov预测方法的应用领域。In order to study the structural change of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing, the prediction techniques of Markov and multiple regression analysis are applied to conduct research on the prediction problem of the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing, and the estimation model of Markov matrix of state transition probability is provided as well. The conclusion shows that the prediction accuracy of the prediction technique is quite high as the error of simulated result has been tested. The prediction technique is applied to forecast the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing from 2013 to 2017. The application of Markov prediction model in forecasting the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing has greatly expanded the fields where the prediction technique of Markov can be put into practice, and the data about the product structure of the electronic publishing industry in Beijing can hopefully offer reference for the development of industrial planning of publishing industry in Beijing.

关 键 词：电子出版业 约束最小二乘估计 MARKOV链 转移概率矩阵 二次规划模型 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]