供应链风险评估:一个贝叶斯——量子决策的推理网络研究范式  

Supply Chain Risk Estimation: a Study Paradigm of Bayesian-Quantum Decision Reasoning Networks

作　　者：郑小京[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第2期19-35,共17页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073037);哈尔滨商业大学博士科研启动基金(13DW007)

摘　　要：为了分析供应链运作过程中存在风险的性质,采用贝叶斯网的方式,构建了供应链风险因素、风险事件之间的系统模型,并在量子概率的基础上,分析各种风险发生的规律,并分析了供应链风险事件之间存在的共同发生的可能性。结论认为:供应链风险是一个具有多源、多维、交叉等多种属性的复杂系统,其中,道德风险与牛鞭效应最容易发生,双重边际效应、资金链断裂以及牛鞭效应的影响最大;若干种风险之间按照一个较高的概率发生着共振现象。To analyze the properties of the supply chain risk in its operation process, a model who named Bayesian Network is introduced to construct the system model of supply chain risk factors, risk event, based on quantum probability, the law of supply chain risk event is gotten and the proba- bility of several supply chain risk events ＂co - occurring＂ is analyzed. It is conclude that supply chain risk is a complex system with multi - sources, multi -dimensions and overlapping properties, where, moral hazards and bull -whip are most susceptible, and double marginal effect, funds chain interruption and bull - whip are most effect supply chain operating, furthermore, there are several risk events are co - occurring with a relative high probability.

关 键 词：供应链风险 风险概率 风险纠缠态 贝叶斯网络 量子概率 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理] C93-03[经济管理—国民经济]