粤港珠三角区域空气污染与经济发展的动态关系  

Dynamic relationship between air pollution and economic growth of the Pearl River Delta Region

作　　者：熊健[1] 曾礼祥 

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州510006 [2]广州大学数学与信息科学学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《广州大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期6-12,共7页Journal of Guangzhou University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：广州市科技计划资助项目(穗科信自[2012]225号)

摘　　要：从2011年和2012年粤港珠三角区域的季度生产总值和空气污染监测网络子站监测月度数据出发,研究粤港珠三角区域的经济增长与空气污染之间的关系.为使数据统一,将季度的生产总值通过三次样条插值转变为月度生产总值.接着建立粤港珠三角区域的向量误差修正模型.然后运用格兰杰因果检验分析生产总值和空气污染变动的因果联系.结果表明粤港珠三角区域的生产总值与空气污染指数之间存在同向变化关系.From the Pearl River Delta region's quarterly GDP and air pollution monitoring network monthly data in 2011 and 2012 as the study units,this paper attempts to demonstrate the relationship between economic growth and air pollution of Pearl River Delta region. For the data unification,the quarterly GDP is transformed into monthly GDP by cubic spline interpolation. Then a mathematical model for the Pearl River Delta region is built by using vector error correction method. Furthermore,the causal link between GDP and air pollution changes is analyzed by using Granger causality test. The results indicate that there exists the same changing relationship between GDP and air pollution index of Pearl River Delta Region.

关 键 词：空气污染 三次样条插值 向量误差修正模型 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]