灰色-马尔科夫链模型在埋地油气管道腐蚀预测中的应用  

Application of grey Markov chain model in corrosion forecast of buried oil and gas pipelines

作　　者：王如君[1,2] 王天瑜[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [2]重大危险源监控与事故应急技术国家安全监管总局安全生产重点实验室,北京100012 [3]中国矿业大学<北京>资源与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年第4期102-106,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK03B03)

摘　　要：针对我国埋地油气管道泄漏事故发生频繁的现状,为了准确地预测油气管道的腐蚀状况,应用灰色GM(1,1)模型对埋地管道的管壁最大腐蚀深度进行预测,并结合马尔科夫链模型对管壁腐蚀的最大概率状态进行分析和预测,实现对埋地油气管道腐蚀现状和运行情况的科学评价和预测,并对模型精度进行检验。结果表明:在检测数据较少的情况下,该组合模型能够很好地预测油气管道的最大腐蚀深度和腐蚀状况,为管道的进一步维护、维修和检测提供参考依据,对于保障油气管道安全运行具有重要的指导意义。Aiming at the current status that the leakage accidents of oil and gas pipelines occur frequently in our country, in order to accurately forecast the corrosion conditions of oil and gas pipelines, the grey GM（1,1） model was applied to forecast the maximum corrosion depth in the wall of buried pipeline, and by combining with Markov chain model, the maximum probability state of corrosion in pipeline wall was analyzed and forecasted to realize the scientific evaluation and forecast on corrosion status and operation condition of the buried oil and gas pipelines, and the accuracy of the model was tested.The results showed that in the case of less detection data, the combination model can well forecast the maximum corrosion depth and the corrosion situation of oil and gas pipelines, and pro-vide a reference basis for further maintenance, repair and detection of the buried pipelines.It has important guiding significance for ensuring the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 马尔科夫链模型 油气管道 腐蚀预测 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]