人口规模、城市化与环境污染的关系——基于新兴经济体国家面板数据的分析  

Relations among population size,urbanization and environment pollution:evidence from the new emerging economies with national panel data

作　　者：焦若静[1] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境保护对外合作中心

出　　处：《城市问题》2015年第5期8-14,共7页Urban Problems

基　　金：环保公益性行业科研项目(201309068)--环境基本公共服务均等化推进路径与评估考核体系研究

摘　　要：以1990-2009年新兴经济体国家的面板数据为研究样本,检验了不同人口规模下城市化与环境污染的关系。研究发现:人口小国的城市化率与环境污染呈正向线性关系,中型国家的城市化率与环境污染呈U型关系,人口大国的城市化率与环境污染呈倒U型关系;人口小国的小城镇发展有利于改善环境质量,中型国家的小城镇与城市群均有助于降低环境污染,人口大国的小城镇与城市群都会对环境造成严重压力。因此,我国的城市化既不能照搬发达国家的成功经验,也不能参照其他人口较少的新兴经济体的道路选择,而应寻找适合中国的人口大国新型城市化发展战略。Using panel data from emerging economies from 1990 to 2009, the relation between urbanization and pollu- tion under different population size is analyzed. It is found that the relation between urbanization and pollution is positive in countries with small population; the relation between urbaniza- tion and pollution is U -shaped in countries with medium popu- lation; and the relation between urbanization and pollution is ad- verse U - shaped in countries with big population. The develop- ment of small towns is good for environment in countries with small population ; the development of small towns and metropoli- tan are both good for environment in countries with medium pop- ulation ; and the development of small towns and metropolitan are bad for environment in countries with big population. Therefore, we should not copy the success from developed countries and other emerging economies with small population, and should seek for one suitable way for China＇ s situation.

关 键 词：人口 城市化 环境污染 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]