慢性胰腺炎死亡及其危险因素分析  

Risk factors of mortality in patients with chronic pancreatitis

作　　者：夏天[1] 杜婷婷[1] 李白容[1] 胡良皞[1] 廖专[1] 郑兆泓 叶博[1] 季钧淘[1] 王丹[1] 林金欢 

机构地区：[1]第二军医大学长海医院消化内科,上海200433

出　　处：《中华胰腺病杂志》2015年第2期89-92,共4页Chinese Journal of Pancreatology

摘　　要：目的 探讨慢性胰腺炎（CP）患者生存情况、死亡原因及其危险因素.方法 收集2000年1月至2008年12月上海长海医院住院的CP患者资料,寿命表法计算死亡的累积发生率,死亡的危险因素采用Cox比例风险模型逐步回归分析.结果 591例CP患者中男女比例为2.69∶1,随访率为85.6％,平均观察时间（10.6±6.3）年.共30例（5.1％）患者死亡,排除2例意外或死因不详者,28例患者的死亡中位年龄为62岁,与发病时间间隔8.2年.CP发病后1、5、10年的死亡累积发生率为0、2.18％、6.86％;CP确诊后1、5、10年的死亡累积发生率为0、4.14％、7.44％,男女之间死亡率差异无统计学意义（P =0.956）.通过单因素分析筛选出7个变量纳入Cox比例风险模型,得出CP确诊前伴有脂肪泻（OR值为5.780）及酗酒（OR值为4.524）为其死亡危险因素.结论 CP确诊前已伴有脂肪泻或酗酒的CP患者更易出现死亡.Objective To investigate the survival,causes of death and risk factors of death in CP patients.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on CP patients admitted in Changbai Hospital from January 2000 to December 2008.The life table method was used to estimate the cumulative death rate.Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis of the risk factors.Results There were 591 patients,and the male/female ratio was 2.69,the followed up rate was 85.6%,and the patients were followed for an average of 10.6 ± 6.3 years.A total of 30 patients died,and 2 patients were died of accident or unknown reasons,in the remaining 28 patients,the median age of 62 years old,and the interval between the onset/diagnosis of CP and death was 8.2 years.The cumulative incidence of death were 0,2.18%,6.86%,0,4.14% and 7.44%,respectively,at 1 year,5 years and 10 years after CP onset and CP diagnosis,respectively,without significant gender difference （p =0.956）.Seven variables derived from univariate analysis were involved in the multivariate analysis by the Cox proportional hazards regression model,and it showed that steatorrhea before CP diagnosis （OR 5.780） and excessive drinking （OR 4.524） were the risk factors of death in CP patients.Conclusions CP patients with steatorrhea or alcoholics before CP diagnosis have higher risk of death.

关 键 词：胰腺炎 慢性 死亡率 危险因素 

分 类 号：R576[医药卫生—消化系统]