城市轨道交通网络短时客流OD估计模型  

Short-time Passenger Flow Origin-destination Estimation Model for Urban Rail Transit Network

作　　者：姚向明[1] 赵鹏[1] 禹丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2015年第2期149-155,162,共8页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51478036)

摘　　要：基于状态空间方法构建适用于城市轨道交通网络的短时客流OD(origindestination)估计模型.利用自动售检票数据分析得到OD间乘客行程时间分布特征,构建基于行程时间分布的客流到达系数,以此建立OD流与车站进出站客流间相互关系,并以车站客流分离率为状态变量构建结构化OD矩阵估计状态空间模型.以北京市轨道交通为对象进行案例分析,结果表明,当估计时段长度为15 min时,估计平均相对误差为35.5%;为30 min时,估计平均相对误差为20.4%;为60 min时,估计平均相对误差为16.3%.所构建模型能能有效解决城市轨道交通短时客流估计问题,具有一定的实用性.A short-time passenger flow origin-destination matrix estimation model based on state-space approach is proposed for urban rail transit network. An arrive coefficient is specially defined for establishing the relationship between OD flows and in-and out-flows at stations, using the passengers＇ travel time distribution through statistical analysis of historical automatic fare collection records, then a structured state-space model using station passenger flow split rate as the state variable is proposed. Finally, a numerical example of Beijing subway network is made. The results show that, when the estimation time interval is 15 minutes, the average relative deviations is 35.5%;if the time interval is 30 minutes, the relative deviations is 20.4%;if the time interval is 60 minutes, the relative deviations is 16.3%. Case study validates that the model meets the request of short-time passenger flow estimation for large-scale urban rail transit network and has strong practicability.

关 键 词：交通工程 短时客流OD估计 状态空间模型 城市轨道交通 行程时间分布 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]