基于小波多分辨率的税收对消费影响的异质性研究  

Heterogeneity Study of the Impact of Tax on Consumer Based on Wavelet Multi-resolution

作　　者：王晓芳[1] 张娥[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,710061

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2015年第4期42-50,共9页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金项目"通货膨胀预期的管理研究"(批准文号:12D106)

摘　　要：该文基于效用函数理论分析了分项税收对消费的影响机制,在此基础之上使用小波多分辨率分析、向量自回归模型、误差修正模型等方法对这一影响机制进行了实证研究。结果表明,不论是在短期还是在中长期,税收对消费的影响均存在异质性。在短期内商品税、所得税和财产税是消费变动的Granger原因,三者对消费的影响均呈现周期性的震荡衰减趋势。其中,商品税对消费的影响最大,所得税和财产税次之。在中长期,商品税、所得税、财产税和其他税均与消费存在一阶协整关系,财产税对消费具有正向的挤入效应,而商品税、所得税和其他税对消费则具有负向的挤出效应,且财产税的挤入效应大于其他三种税收的挤出效应。综合而言,各种税收对消费的中长期影响大于短期影响。Based on the Utility ruftcuuLl different tax on consumption. On this basis, we uses wavelet multi-resolution analysis, vector autoregression model and error correction model to examined the impact mechanism. The results show that both the short term or the long term, the impact of tax on consumption are present heterogeneity. In the short term, commodity tax, income tax and property tax Granger cause changes in consumption. Among them, the impact o{ commodity tax is greatest, income tax and property tax followed. Medium to longer term, there is a first-order co-integration relationship between different tax and consumption, property taxes on consumption has positive crowding-in effect,commodity tax, income tax and other taxes on consumption will have negative crowding- out effect,and the impact of property tax is greater than the other three taxes. To sum up, the long-term impact on consumption is greater than the short-term impact.

关 键 词：消费 税收 小波多分辨率分析 VAR VEC 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]