人口、户数和家庭规模变动对资源消耗的影响分析——基于IPAT等式和结构分解分析模型  

The Impact of Population, Household, and Family Scale on Resource Consumption: An Analysis Based on IPAT Equation and SDA Model

作　　者：王月菊[1] 陈文江[1] 李勇进[1] 王娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学哲学社会学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第6期23-27,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BSH059);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20120211120026);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(lzujbky-2013-132)

摘　　要：人口因素一直被认为是影响资源消耗的重要因素之一。以往研究以人口规模、人口增速等宏观人口学统计指标测量人口对环境的影响度,忽视了家庭资源消费并非简单的个人消费之和。文章基于IPAT等式,分别构建了家庭户数模型和人口规模模型,并运用"修正后的Laspeyres"指数分解法,比较分析了家庭规模、家庭户数和人口规模对能源和水资源消费的影响。结果表明家庭户数增长和人口规模扩大都会刺激能源和水资源消费的进一步增长,但前者的刺激作用大于后者,且两者的作用差距不断扩大。家庭户数的快速增长已成为我国能源、水资源消耗的主要驱动因素之一。Population has long been regarded as one of the driving forces of resources consumption. Most previous researches used population scale, population growth rate and other macro-demographic statistical indicators to measure the impact of population on the environment, but they ignored that the family resources consumption is not simply the sum of personal consumption. This paper analyzes the impacts of family size, households＇ amount and population scale on energy and water consumption respectively by adopting refined Laspeyres index method. The results indicate that the factor of households＇ amount has a greater impact on energy and water consumption than population scale, and the gap becomes larger. What a controversial result is that the shrinking of family size has the inhibited effects on the increase of resource consumption, but the inhibited effects is receding. So, the increasing of households＇ amount becomes one of the main driving forces of resources consumption.

关 键 词：人口 户数 资源消耗 IPAT等式 结构分解分析 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]