不确定条件下发电投资决策模型及应用  

Study and Application of Generation Investment Decision Model under Uncertainty

作　　者：曾鸣[1] 阿斯卡尔[1] 何科雷 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第6期199-202,208,共5页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：研究市场机制下影响电厂建设的随机不确定因素,对于形成理性、科学的发电容量投资决策具有重要意义。在考虑投资者面临的新建电厂的类型、位置、容量、政策、价格等不确定性因素的基础上,基于净现值法、实物期权、风险价值和投资组合理论,构建了发电投资决策模型,通过仿真算例对比了投资燃煤和燃气两种技术方案下不同因素对投资决策的影响,结果可为投资者是否进行延迟投资及投资组合提供依据。It has great significant to research uncertainties of power plant construction in market mechanism and form rational, scientific generation capacity investment decisions. The uncertainties of the new power plants ＇ type, location, capacity, policy, price that investors faced are considered in the paper. The power plant investment decision model is es- tablished based on the net present value method, real option, value at risk and portfolio theory. The impacts of different factors on the investment decisions of coal and gas are comparative analysis by simulation example. The results show that the model can provide a basis for investors whether to delay investment and portfolio.

关 键 词：电厂投资 延迟投资 投资组合 实物期权 风险价值 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]