北京市流动人口发展趋势预测研究  

Study on the Development Trend Forecast of Floating Population in Beijing

作　　者：夏恩君[1] 李森[1] 赵轩维[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《科技和产业》2015年第5期52-62,共11页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：进入新世纪以来,北京市流动人口规模增长了1倍多。其中,省内流动人口规模增长了4倍多,省际流动人口规模增长了1.86倍。综合运用灰色预测模型和Logistic模型,以及综合运用ARIMA模型和Logistic模型,得到2020年北京市外省流入人口规模的预测区间为[867.50,1045.29](单位:万)。即预计到2020年,北京市外省流入人口规模最低为867.50万人,最高为1 045.29万人。相应地,预计到2020年,北京市外省流入人口规模的最低年均增长率为1.25%,最高年均增长率为3.98%。Since entering the new century, the floating population in Beijing has more than doubled. The internal floating population whose ac- counts are in Beijing province has increased more than 4 times. Meanwhile, the interprovincial floating population has increased nearly 2 times. In view of the source analysis of the interprovincial floating population, Hebei Province, Henan Province, Shandong Province and Sichuan Province are still the main sources. Considering the perspective of whereabouts, the interprovineial floating population mainly locates in Chaoyang District, Haidian District, Changping District and Daxing District. In addition, the main cause of flowing in Beijing is working or engaging in trade. On the basis of present condition analysis of floating population in Beijing, the paper connects the Grey model with Logistic model, as well as the combina- tion of ARIMA model and Logistic model to forecast the development trend of the interprovincial floating population in Beijing. The forecasting re- sult shows that the minimum size of the interprovincial floating population in Beijing is 8. 675 million which annual rate of growth is 1.25%. Con- versely, the maximum size is 10. 4529 million with average annual growth of about 3.98%.

关 键 词：北京市 流动人口 灰色预测 LOGISTIC模型 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]