浙江省海洋捕捞产量及渔船数量动态预测与分析——基于灰色系统理论  

Prediction and Analysis for Marine Capture Yield and the Number of Marine Fishery Vessels Dynamic in Zhejiang Province by Using Grey System Theory

作　　者：彭道民 王飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋学院水产学院,浙江舟山316022

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第18期259-261,279,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：运用灰色系统理论预测的方法,对浙江省海洋捕捞产量和渔船数量的发展动态进行了分析,并对2014~2018年浙江省海洋捕捞产量和海洋渔船的数量进行了预测分析。结果表明,2014~2018年浙江省海洋捕捞产量为361.80万~392.01万t,产量年增长率约为2.0%,海洋渔船数量为3.02万~3.16万艘,渔船数量年下降率约为1.0%。为保障海洋渔业的可持续发展,从保护近海渔业资源、扶持和发展远洋渔业、解决养殖业发展问题、加强海洋管理4个方面提出了针对性的建议。Based on grey system theory, the development dynamic of marine capture yield and the number of marine fishery vessels in Zhe- jiang Province was analyzed, and the marine capture yield and the number of marine fishery vessels of Zhejiang Province in the next five years was forecasted and analyzed. The prediction results showed that the marine capture yield is 361.80 × 10^4 -392.01 × 10^4 t, capture yield con- tinues to increase slightly about 2.0% per year during 2014 to 2018, the number of marine fishery vessels is 3.02 ×10^4 - 3.16 × 10^4, the number of vessels continue to decline slightly about 1.0% per year during 2014 to 2018 in Zhejiang Province. In order to ensure the sustain- able development of marine fishery, several corresponding countermeasures were put forward from four aspects, including protect offshore fish- cry resources, support and develop long distance fishery, solve the problem of the aquaculture industry development, strengthen marine man- agement.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 海洋捕捞 海洋渔船 灰色预测 

分 类 号：S977[农业科学—捕捞与储运]