基于AHP-FUZZY与SVM理论电网雷害风险评估  

Lightning Disaster Risk Assessment for Power System Based on AHP-FUZZY and SVM

作　　者：徐金平[1] 王俊波[1] 张志伟 董龙洋 李波[1] 张晓涛[1] 李列平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,武汉430074 [2]江苏智方建设工程有限公司,上海200000 [3]山东电力工程咨询有限公司,济南250000

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2015年第5期86-90,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金(2013CFA110);中国地质大学(武汉)教学实验室开放基金项目(SKJ2013107)

摘　　要：为了对电网遭受雷击灾害风险进行研究,以高压输电线路多个雷害影响因子为出发点对其进行归类,解决了以单因子雷击跳闸率作为高压输电线路遭受雷害评价指标的不足。采用AHP(层次分析法)-FUZZY(模糊数学理论)对电网雷害风险展开评估分级,引入某地500 k V电网工程实例,成功将该地电网雷害风险等级定为Ⅲ级中等雷害风险。为验证AHP-FUZZY法对电网雷害风险进行评估的准确性及可靠度,采用SVM(支持向量机)理论对工程实例进行分析计算,结果相关性系数R2为0.932,预测错误率为0,表明本次风险评估是可靠的,能够为电网雷害风险研究提供较大的理论与实际支撑。In order to study the lightning disaster risk assessment for power system,more high voltage transmission line lightning disturbance impact factors are taken as a starting point and have been classified,which can improve the deficiency that the single factor of lightning trip- out rate is regarded as a high- voltage transmission line suffer lightning disturbance evaluation index. The AHP（ Analytic Hierarchy Process）- FUZZY（ Fuzzy Mathematics Method）method is adopted at the first time in lightning disaster risk assessment for power system. One 500 k V power grid project is introduced as the case and the risk level of the power grid is successfully identified as Ⅲ level medium ray against risk. To test the accuracy and reliability of AHP- FUZZY method for grid to evaluate the risk,the theory of SVM（ Support Vector Machine） is used to conduct analyses and calculations. The results show that the correlation coefficient（ R2） is 0. 932 and the prediction error rate is 0,suggesting that this risk assessment is reliable and able to provide large theoretical and practical support in lightning disaster risk assessment of power system.

关 键 词：电网安全 雷害风险评估 层次分析法 模糊数学 支持向量机 

分 类 号：TM862[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]