政治不确定性、股利政策调整与市场效应  

Political Uncertainty,Dividend Policy Adjustments and Market Effects

作　　者：雷光勇[1] 王文忠[1] 刘茉[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际财务与会计研究中心/国际商学院,100029

出　　处：《会计研究》2015年第4期33-39,95,共7页Accounting Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71472041);北京市教委-基地共建项目(2015);对外经济贸易大学科研创新基金重点项目(201304)的支持

摘　　要：本文以2004-2010年沪深A股上市公司数据,考察市委书记变更导致的政治不确定性对企业现金股利决策的影响。研究发现,政治不确定性显著导致企业股利政策的稳健性调整。一方面,使原先未发放现金股利的企业更不愿开始发放;另一方面,使企业显著调减股利支付强度。较之民企,国企更会因政治不确定性采取稳健的现金股利政策。企业这种稳健性调整具有显著的正向市场效应。By studying Chinese firms that issued A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets from 2004 to 2010,we examine how political uncertainty,caused by a change of Party chief at the municipal level,affects firms' cash dividend decisions. We find that political uncertainty leads to a more prudent cash dividend policy. First,non-dividend-payers are less likely to initiate dividends. Secondly,political uncertainty significantly reduces the level of dividend payments. Compared with privately-owned firms,state-owned firms are more likely to adopt prudent cash dividend policies. The prudent adjustments due to political uncertainty have significant positive market effects.

关 键 词：官员变更 政治不确定性 股利政策调整 市场效应 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]