世界与中国女子铅球成绩发展态势及预测研究  

Study on the Development Status and Achievement Forecast of World Women's Shot Put

作　　者：张华[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东科学技术职业学院体育系,广东珠海519090

出　　处：《湖北体育科技》2015年第5期428-430,共3页Hubei Sports Science

摘　　要：运用文献资料法、数理统计法、灰色系统预测等方法,根据23-30届奥运会女子铅球前3名成绩变化对世界女子铅球运动发展态势进行分析,根据2002-2012年度世界排名成绩预测2013年世界与中国年度成绩。研究表明,世界与中国在女子铅球成绩走势相似,24届奥运会是该项目的巅峰,中国女子铅球黄金期也恰好处于这一阶段,在世界女子铅球成绩下滑过程中,中国也处于低谷;中国女子铅球世界排名成绩将上升,有望在世界大赛中取得更好名次。By means of literature, statistics and Gray system methods, the paper analyzes the development status of world women＇s shot put on the basis of the top three achievements changes from 23rd to 30th Olympic Games. According to world top lists from 2002 to 2012, the achievement of world women＇s shot put in 2013 has been forecasted. The results show that the trend of China was similar to that of the world. The world peak of women＇s shot put was in 24th OG as well as that of the Chinese. The world achievements descended when Chinese women＇s shot put was in downturn. Chinese achievement ranking would rise and be expected to get better rank in the world games.

关 键 词：女子 铅球 灰色预测 GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：G824.1[文化科学—体育训练]