中美两国2020年后减排目标比较  

A Comparative Analysis of the Post-2020 CO_2 Emission Reduction Target Set by China and the United States

作　　者：王海林[1] 何晓宜[1] 张希良[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第6期23-29,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(编号:2012BAC20B07);国家社科基金重大项目(编号:09&ZD029)

摘　　要：针对中美气候变化联合声明中公布的各自2020年后减排目标,本文通过情景分析的方法,测算了中美两国实现各自目标所需要采取的行动和努力,比较了两国在GDP碳排放强度下降、新能源和可再生能源发展规模、CO2排放达峰时间及其所处发展阶段、以及电力部门减排四个方面的努力程度和效果。通过比较可以看到,在中美两国分别实现各自既定目标的情况下,中国单位GDP碳强度年下降率将达4%,其幅度高于美国在2025年减排28%目标下的年下降率(3.59%);中国的新能源和可再生能源发展也更为迅速,年均增速高达约8%,2030年非化石能源总供应量可达11.6亿tce,约为届时美国非化石能源总供应量的2倍;在CO2排放达峰值方面,中国实现CO2排放峰值时所处的发展阶段要早于美国达峰值时的经济社会发展阶段,中国在强化低碳发展情景目标下可在2030年左右实现碳排放达峰值,且峰值时人均CO2排放约8 t水平,低于美国CO2排放峰值时的人均排放19.5 t的水平;在电力部门的减排努力方面,中国在未来比较高的电力需求背景下,2030年可实现比2011年单位千瓦时的CO2强度下降35%,而美国同期则只需下降约20%即可实现其电力部门的减排目标。上述几项指标的比较更可突显中国2020年后的减排目标是非常宏伟且极具挑战的。在实现2030年减排目标的行动中,中国政府还需要进一步强化和细化新能源和可再生能源的发展目标,进一步分解和落实全国及各省市的减排目标和减排行动,持续推进节能与加强新能源技术的创新,在经济高速发展的同时协调好经济、能源和环境的问题,早日实现低碳发展和生态文明。China and the United States have recently released their post-2020 CO2 emission reduction targets under their Joint Announcement on Climate Change. To have a better understanding of the commitments of the two nations, we calculate and compare the efforts and/or actions that the nations would need to take to achieve the targets in terms of carbon intensity reduction rate of the economy, scale of new and renewable energy applications, the development stage where CO2 emission would need to peak, and power sector decarbonization rate. We have found that, under the circumstances of above two countries to honor their commitment, China would need to have a higher rate of reduction in carbon intensity of the economy （ annually around 4% ） which is higher than United States （ annually around 3.59% ） based on its 28% target. China would also need to take more accelerated efforts to promote new and renewable energy development and deployment than the United States. China＇ s new and renewable supply will need to maintain an annual growth of 8% on average, and reach 1.16 billion tons of coal equivalent （tce） in 2030, approximately twice of the amount in the United States. China will also need to achieve its CO2 emission peaking in an earlier development stage and at a much lower per capita CO2 emission （about 8t/person） than the United State did （19.5t/person）. It is projected that China will need to lower the carbon emission per kWh in its power sector by 35% from 2011 to 2030 to achieve its target while the United States only by 20% over the same period. According to our comparative analysis, China＇ s post-2020 CO2 emission reduction target is very ambitious and challengeable to achieve. The government should to take positive efforts to achieve this target. The efforts not only includes to strengthen and to refine the development planning of new and renewable energy, to decompose the reduction target and action to provinces and cities, but also includes promoting energy saving and improving technolog

关 键 词：减排目标 中国和美国 碳排放峰值 电力部门减排 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]