开放条件下我国房价波动、货币政策立场识别及其反应研究  

The Fluctuation of House Price,Recognition and Response of Monetary Policy Stance in the Open Environment

作　　者：谭政勋[1] 刘少波 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学金融系/金融研究所,广东广州510632

出　　处：《金融研究》2015年第5期50-66,共17页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金(12BJY161);暨南大学远航计划项目<资产价格波动与货币政策问题研究>;国家社科基金重点项目(11AJY013);广东省教育厅社科重大攻关项目(11ZGXM79004)资助

摘　　要：货币政策是否应当反应及如何反应资产价格特别是房价波动,是一个颇具争议且结论莫衷一是的问题。本文在克服货币政策内生性和识别货币政策立场的基础上,并在开放条件下对此进行实证研究。结果表明,克服货币政策的内生性后,我国货币政策本身能够有效调控房价;央行在实际操作中也已对房价波动做出反应,而且货币政策对房价波动做出反应后,无论是紧缩还是宽松的货币政策对宏观经济和房价的调控效果更好;同时,有管理的人民币浮动汇率制度可以促进出口并拉动经济增长,且部分缓解了人民币升值压力,但货币供应的独立性会受到较大的影响,并助推了房价的过快上涨。本文的计量模型和估计方法减弱了货币政策的内生性,实证结果没有出现"价格之谜",与理论更为贴近,与我国货币政策实践及宏观经济运行状况也相一致,因此结果更为可靠。最后提出了相应的政策建议。Whether monetary policy should response to and how to react to the asset price especially the house price fluctuation is a controversial issue which doesn＇ t get a accordant conclusion. This paper makes an empirical study on this question on the basis of overcoming the endogenous monetary policy and recognition of monetary policy stance in the open environment. The result shows that the monetary policy itself can effectively control house prices after overcoming the endogenous monetary policy. The central bank has responded to the house price fluctuation in the actual operations, and that, both tight and ease monetary policy have better effect on macroeconomic and house price. Meanwhile, the managed floating exchange system can promote export, drive economic growth, and partly relieve RMB appreciation pressure, but it also has a great influence on the independence of monetary supply and helps boost the excessive price rises. The econometric models and estimation method in this paper weaken the endogenous monetary policy, and the empirical results, which are more close to the theory and do not show ＂price puzzle＂, would be more reliable and consistent with the monetary practice c situation. In the end, this paper raises some appropriate policy proposals concerning to the research results.

关 键 词：房价波动 货币政策 开放经济 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0