基于数值天气预报的母线负荷预测  

Bus Load Forecasting Based on Numerical Weather Prediction

作　　者：李博[1] 门德月[1] 严亚勤[2] 杨军峰[2] 周劼英[2] 罗治强[2] 曾丽莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京市100192 [2]国家电网公司国家电力调度控制中心,北京市100031

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2015年第1期137-140,共4页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A118);国家电网公司科技项目"面向多级调度的调度计划关键技术研究"~~

摘　　要：针对母线负荷量大面广,易受气象变化影响,且传统天气预报与母线负荷之间存在极为松散的地理对应关系,提出了基于数值天气预报和负荷分类的母线负荷预测。通过获取母线负荷所属行政区域,如县、乡或市辖区的地理位置,提取与母线地理位置紧密对应的高精度数值天气预报信息。通过研究母线负荷与气象因素的相关特性,构建了基于数值天气预报和负荷分类预测的母线负荷预测模型。通过对某省母线负荷进行分析预测,验证了该方法的实用、有效性。In view of the bus load forecast features such as large amount and wide range,susceptibility to weather changes,plus a very loose geographical correspondence between traditional weather forecast and the bus load,a new bus load forecasting method based on numerical weather prediction and load classification is proposed.By learning about the respective location in the administrative area of bus load,such as counties,townships or municipal districts,the corresponding high precision numerical weather information is extracted.Moreover,by studying the bus load and meteorological factors related features,the bus load forecasting model is built based on load classification.The method has successfully been applied in a provincial bus load forecast.

关 键 词：母线负荷预测 数值天气预报 相关性分析 模糊聚类 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]