国际关系研究中的确定性与不确定性  

On Certainties and Uncertainties in the Studies of International Relations

作　　者：李少军[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院国际关系研究所

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2015年第6期23-38,156-157,共16页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：国际关系学是个不完美的学科。人们追求的是没有疑问的确定知识,但实际上却面对着许多难以认知的对象和研究的不确定性。由于国际关系事实具有社会属性和系统属性,观念因素不能直接观察,系统效应的复杂影响难以解释,因此信息的不完备和推论的不确定性不能避免。在这样的学科背景下,人们进行国际关系研究既需要解释变量间关系的确定性,也需要解释观念因素和复杂系统导致的不确定性。解释确定性,是在既定前提下指明一定事态的属性与可能的变化范围,告诉人们应当关注的方向与因素。解释不确定性,是要说明系统中不可以观察因素的复杂构成,并推论其互动关系和对系统效应的贡献。在这两项不可以分割开的研究中,人们需要积累有关各种单一机制的确定性知识,同时也需要不断加深对不确定性的理解。就国际关系学科而言,确定的知识都是特定前提的推论结果,并不能解释国际关系的全部。有关不确定性的知识,无论对研究者还是决策者来说都是必要的和需要的,因为国际大环境就是不确定的,人们需要有不断深入的认识。The study of international relations is not a perfect discipline.What scholars seek is certain knowledge,but they have to deal with both many facts that are difficult to comprehend and with academic uncertainties.Because facts in international relations have societal and systemic properties,conceptual factors cannot be directly observed and the complex impacts of the systemic effects are difficult to explain,and therefore incomplete information and inference uncertainties cannot be avoided.In this regard,studies of international relations need to explain both the certainties of the relationships among the variables and the uncertainties due to the conceptual factors and the systemic complexities.The certainties can be explained by specifying the properties of specific events and the range of possible changes within the given premises and by indicating those directions and factors that require close attention.Explaining the uncertainties requires revealing the complex systemic structure due to the non-observable factors and deducing their interactions and contributions to the systemic effects.In studies in which the two cannot be separated,specific knowledge about every single mechanism as well as a deepened understanding of the uncertainties is required.With respect to the discipline of international relations,some knowledge can be inferred from the results of specific premises that cannot explain everything in international relations.Knowledge about such uncertainties is necessary for both researchers and policy makers because the international environment is uncertain and a deeper understanding is required.

关 键 词：确定性 不确定性 系统效应 理性主义 建构主义 

分 类 号：D80[政治法律—政治学]