灰色 GM（1，1）模型在某医院颅脑损伤入院人数预测中的应用  

Application of Grey GM（1,1）model in Prediction on number of craniocerebral injury patients admit ed to hospita in a hospital

作　　者：孟令海[1,2] 朱军[1] 陈通[2] 金子环[2] 张胜强[2] 纪翰翔 高宏伟[2] 刘云霞[2] 余亮科[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北联合大学,河北唐山063000 [2]河北联合大学附属医院曹妃甸区医院,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《医学美学美容（中旬刊）》2015年第4期45-46,共2页

摘　　要：目的：探讨灰色 GM（1，1）模型我院颅脑损伤患者入院人数预测中的应用，为掌握我院颅脑损伤患者入院人数变化趋势提供依据。方法：收集2005－2014年我院颅脑损伤患者入院人数统计报表资料，用 Excel2003和 SAS9．3建立灰色 GM（1，1）模型，并对模型进行检验后用于预测。结果：建立了我院颅脑损伤患者入院人数的灰色 GM（1，1）模型，后验差检验模型精度均为优，回带相对误差和平均相对误差均小于5％，并对2015－2017年我院颅脑损伤患者入院人数进行了预测。结论：灰色 GM（1，1）模型是一种短期内预测精度较高的预测模型，预测效果可靠。Objective To explore the application of grey GM（1,1）model in the prediction on number of craniocerebral injury patients admit ed to hospita in a hospital and provide basis for grasping the trends of changes of number of craniocerebral injury patients admit ed to hospita.Methods The data of mortality of the number of craniocerebral injury patients admit ed to hospita from 2005 to 2014 in a hospital was col ected and Excel2003 and SAS9.3 were used to fit grey GM（1,1）model,At the same time,grey GM（1,1）model was used to evaluate after they had been tested and valued.Results The grey GM（1,1）models of number of craniocerebral injury patients admit ed to hospita in a hospital was fit ed,The model was advanced by the precision -test and their relative error and mean relative error were al less than 5%.Then this model was used to forecast number of craniocerebral injury patients admit ed to hospita from 2015 to 2017 in a hospital.Conclusions According to the model fitness accuracy,modified residual error GM（1,1）model is a forecasting model with higher accuracy in the short term and its forecasting ef ect is reliable.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 颅脑损伤 人数 预测 

分 类 号：R722.12[医药卫生—儿科]