与月份及预警有关的广东省台风动态风险研究  

Study of the typhoon dynamic risk in Guangdong province with respect to months and early warning

作　　者：郭君[1,2] 黄崇福[1,2] 艾福利[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]匹兹堡大学灾害管理中心,匹兹堡pa15260

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第6期1604-1616,共13页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955402);国家自然科学基金(12200-210100094)

摘　　要：本文将自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理应用于台风动态风险研究,以广东省为案例表述了动态风险因综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化.仅以月份不同及有无预警,就能说明台风风险确有动态性.本文采用信息扩散技术估计概率分布和构造脆弱性曲线,计算年度台风灾损率期望值作为风险值.结果表明,广东省一年内不同月份的台风风险水平不同.在台风季节,6月份风险水平最低,9月份最高;台风预警机制,对台风风险水平影响较大.该项研究对台风灾害的应急管理,有一定的参考价值.Based on the basic principles for analyzing dynamic risks of natural disasters,this paper studies the typhoon dynamic risk and takes Guangdong province as an example to show the change of typhoon risk along with the changes in the integrated environmental and intrinsic properties.In this paper,the different months when typhoon occurs and whether there is an early warning system before typhoon comes are used to show the dynamics of typhoon risk.What’s more,the information diffusion technique is applied to estimate probability distribution and to construct the vulnerability curve.Integrating the product of the distribution and the curve,the expected value of proportion of the direct economic loss for one typhoon is calculated as the risk value.The result shows that the typhoon risk values in Guangdong province vary in different months.During the typhoon season,the typhoon risk is lowest in June and highest in September.Besides,whether there is an early warning mechanism has a great influence on the typhoon risk.And,the result has reference value for the emergency management.

关 键 词：动态风险 信息扩散 台风 广东省 应急管理 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]