新疆地区沙漠化预测研究——以若羌盆地为例  

Desertification Disaster Prediction Research in Xinjiang——taking Ruoqiang basin as an example

作　　者：张福新[1] 李国东[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学应用数学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《伊犁师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期9-14,共6页Journal of Yili Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(11461063);国家社会科学基金项目(14BTJ021);国家教育部人文社会科学基金项目(13YJAZH040);新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2013I26);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(cdyjk2014045)

摘　　要：沙漠化是新疆面临的最严重的环境问题之一。为了减少沙漠化对新疆经济发展带来的巨大损失，对沙漠化未来的变化趋势作出正确的预测显得尤为重要。以若羌盆地为例，建立沙漠化预测模型。首先利用微分方程模型和指数平滑模型对该地区2000~2011年沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趋势的土地、非沙漠化土地的面积进行数值模拟，结果表明，指数平滑模型预测的结果更接近原始数据，误差更小，准确率更高，说明指数平滑模型可以很好地预测沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趋势的土地和非沙漠化土地。其次，分别运用微分方程模型和指数平滑模型预测了该地区2012~2025年的沙漠化土地面积、有沙漠化趋势的土地面积、非沙漠化土地面积，再次验证了指数平滑模型在预测未来沙漠化变化趋势方面的优势。最后得出结论：指数平滑模型可以很好地预测未来沙漠化土地、有沙漠化趋势的土地、非沙漠化土地的变化趋势。at present,the desertification disaster is one of the most serious environmental problems Xinjiang faces. In order to reduce the huge losses of desertification disaster to the economic development of Xinjiang ,at the same time in order to stability and unity of the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang,it is necessary to forecast the future trend of desertification changes. In this paper,taking Ruoqiang basin as an example,we establish desertifi-cation prediction model. First,in the area of desertification land in 2000-2011 years,the trend of desertification of land,non desertification land areas carried on the numerical simulation,using differential equation model and ex-ponential smoothing model results show that the exponential smoothing model,prediction results closer to the origi-nal data,error smaller,more accurate. Secondly,respectively,using differential equation model and exponential smoothing model predicts the land desertification,in 2012-2025 years of the desertification trend of land,non de-sertification land areas,once again proved the exponential smoothing model to predict the future trend of desertifi-cation and potential changes in terms of advantage. Finally the conclusion is：the exponential smoothing model can predict the change trend of desertification land,having the trend of desertification land,non desertification land in the future. The research can provide a powerful reference and guidance for the prevention and control of desertifica？tion in the future,and also has theoretical meaning for desertification research in the future.

关 键 词：若羌盆地 沙漠化 微分方程模型预测 指数平滑模型预测 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]